Cybiont Capital, LLC

April 1, 2024

Negative Carry is a Serious “Drag”

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransico has estimated that all the pandemic-era excess savings has left the system (see the charts below). It would be nice to think that we can simply return to the pre-pandemic management of our funding and liquidity as though nothing happened of lasting effect. That, however, is not the… Continue reading

Bank Regulation & Supervision, Commentary, Industry Analysis
March 22, 2024

A Quick Look at Compass Point’s March 20, 2024, SoFi Report

First, thanks to Giuliano Bologna for providing the analysis at my request. Second, as I’ve stated in other forums, I respect Giuliano’s capabilities as an analyst and the work that he does, and his diligence in extensively showing how he arrives at his conclusions. Few companies disclose everything we would like to know as analysts… Continue reading

Uncategorized
March 7, 2024

Cybiont’s Allen Puwalski Joins Board of Flagstar Bank, NA (NYCB) Reuniting Team OneWest, NA

I’m thrilled to announce that I will be joining the board of Flagstar Bank, NA (NYCB). I am excited to reunite with some of the team that transformed IndyMac FSB into OneWest Bank, NA and later sold to CIT, tripling invested capital in under 5 years. With a solid foundation in place, including enough equity… Continue reading

Uncategorized
February 8, 2024

What’s Really Happening with Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Loans

Given the precipitous decline in NYCB, many market observers are trying to gauge the extent of deterioration in ComRe books at Regional and Community Banks. Too many analysts are either focused on REIT performance measures or aggregate bank measures—neither of which provides reliable insight to banks’ balance sheets. REIT numbers don’t work because the underlying… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis
December 22, 2023

Cybiont’s 3Q23 Granular View of Bank Credit Quality

Summary of Current Credit Conditions Table 1 shows the level and trend of the stock of underperforming Total Loans over the past year for a consistent universe of 512 publicly traded banks. Chart 1 Credit remains benign, and over the past year, banks have been diligently charging off underperforming loans in order to maintain the… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis
December 2, 2023

Debunking the Short Thesis on SoFi

SoFi stock appears to be the target of a coordinated short seller attack. By this, we mean that we’ve heard similar ideas using similar language that doesn’t seem like it emerged from independent thinkers. Language that is slightly “off” is being repeated as though it has been arrived at independently. Short attacks like these are… Continue reading

Investment Opportunity, Talking Our Book
November 7, 2023

Cybiont’s Long / Short Systematic Portfolio: October 2023 & Performance to Date (4 months)

While our returns were muted for August (roughly break-even), We’re thrilled with our nearly 46% annual return to date (compared to the BKX’s almost 13% annualized return for the two months); and we are especially satisfied that we were able to accomplish this return with less than half the volatility of the BKX, which generated… Continue reading

Investment Opportunity, Talking Our Book
October 19, 2023

NIM Deterioration Slowed in 3Q23

While it’s a little early (just 69 banks have reported so far), the pace of Net Interest Margin (NIM) contraction appears to be slowing as we had anticipated. Chart 1 displays the path of NIMs over the last four quarters on a consistent cohort basis of the 69 banks that have thus far reported, with… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis
October 12, 2023

Expectations going into 3Q23 Earnings Season

Tomorrow 3Q23 earning season begins for the US banks. Compared to last quarter analysts are more sanguine going into this quarter’s earnings season. In our universe of 285 US Banks with sell-side analyst coverage, the median revision since August 31st in next twelve months earnings (NTM) EPS estimates has been 0%. The skew is to… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis
October 2, 2023

Cybiont’s Long / Short Systematic Portfolio: September 2023 & Performance to Date (3 months)

While our returns were muted for August (roughly break-even), We’re thrilled with our nearly 46% annual return to date (compared to the BKX’s almost 13% annualized return for the two months); and we are especially satisfied that we were able to accomplish this return with less than half the volatility of the BKX, which generated… Continue reading

Investment Opportunity, Talking Our Book

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Public Markets: We structure bank investment portfolios providing risk-tailored strategies by systematically integrating fundamental and technical analysis building alpha-generating long/short portfolios from the nearly 300 liquid publicly traded banking companies in the U.S. markets. If you want bank equity exposure with tailored risk parameter’s, we’re your source.

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